There is a threat for severe weather over portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday, May 17th.
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| SPC |
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe storms for southeast Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, and northern Illinois in response to the expected severe weather today. The primary threats for those regions are large hail, damaging winds, and potentially more than a few tornadoes, particularly in northwest Illinois and west Wisconsin. A Slight Risk of severe weather extends from the Minnesota/Canada border into Michigan, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Arkansas, and extreme southeast Oklahoma. These areas can expect thunderstorms with potentially large hail, damaging winds, and a threat of a tornado or two.
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| NOAA |
The latest visible satellite imagery over the Midwest shows an area of significant clearing from extreme eastern Iowa to southern Illinois. Continued cloud cover persists over the eastern side of Illinois, into Wisconsin and Missouri. It is expected that the areas with more clearing/sunshine will achieve the best threat at severe weather before storms start to fire later this afternoon.
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| COD |
The latest 14z HRRR depicts thunderstorm formation in the first few hours of the afternoon, with those storms attaining super cellular characteristics shortly thereafter. The above image depicts updraft helicity (spinning motion in the updraft, which can help identify the tornado threat). While storms will likely not track in these exact motions, you get the idea that some severe storms are favored in Wisconsin and Illinois this afternoon.
To Summarize:
- Severe thunderstorms are expected in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois this afternoon.
- The primary threats are hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
Andrew
