Headline
High resolution model guidance is in agreement concerning a severe weather event unfolding on the afternoon of Saturday, April 25th.
Timing
Consensus is for thunderstorm development to commence in a 1PM to 4PM window, with severe weather expected to become a threat beyond the 4PM period into about 10PM.
Areas affected
Southern Illinois, southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and eastern Tennessee are most at risk for this severe weather threat. A lesser, but still present threat exists into the Southeast states.
Discussion
High-resolution model guidance capable of simulating more mesoscale convection features is in agreement of thunderstorm development between 1PM and 4PM, with additional development a possibility until about the 6PM hour for the initialization region of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois. Thunderstorms will be forming in the midst of a shortwave being shunted eastward as a result of a powerful upper level low stationed near the Canadian Maritimes and Northeast US.
Model guidance sees thunderstorm formation initially as discrete, with rotating updrafts becoming a common theme across southern Illinois in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Environment appears favorable for severe weather on the order of large hail and possible tornadoes as the event begins in southern Illinois, transitioning to southern Indiana and western Kentucky. Model guidance then sees a transition to a more linear storm mode, maximizing the damaging wind potential in Kentucky and Tennessee, reducing the tornado threat in the process.
Summary
Severe thunderstorms, some with the threat for large hail and tornadoes, will form in eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Severe thunderstorms, with the threat of large hail and damaging winds, will persist into central Kentucky and eastern Tennessee in the evening hours.
Andrew
High resolution model guidance is in agreement concerning a severe weather event unfolding on the afternoon of Saturday, April 25th.
Timing
Consensus is for thunderstorm development to commence in a 1PM to 4PM window, with severe weather expected to become a threat beyond the 4PM period into about 10PM.
Areas affected
Southern Illinois, southern Indiana, much of Kentucky, and eastern Tennessee are most at risk for this severe weather threat. A lesser, but still present threat exists into the Southeast states.
Discussion
High-resolution model guidance capable of simulating more mesoscale convection features is in agreement of thunderstorm development between 1PM and 4PM, with additional development a possibility until about the 6PM hour for the initialization region of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois. Thunderstorms will be forming in the midst of a shortwave being shunted eastward as a result of a powerful upper level low stationed near the Canadian Maritimes and Northeast US.
Model guidance sees thunderstorm formation initially as discrete, with rotating updrafts becoming a common theme across southern Illinois in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Environment appears favorable for severe weather on the order of large hail and possible tornadoes as the event begins in southern Illinois, transitioning to southern Indiana and western Kentucky. Model guidance then sees a transition to a more linear storm mode, maximizing the damaging wind potential in Kentucky and Tennessee, reducing the tornado threat in the process.
Summary
Severe thunderstorms, some with the threat for large hail and tornadoes, will form in eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western Kentucky in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Severe thunderstorms, with the threat of large hail and damaging winds, will persist into central Kentucky and eastern Tennessee in the evening hours.
Andrew
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